Joe Runyan Race Analysis - Iditarod 2010
Joe Runyan, outdoor adventurer and author of Winning Strategies for Distance Mushers (2003), won the Iditarod Sled Dog Race in 1989. Runyan is the only musher to have won the Iditarod, Yukon Quest (1985), and Alpirod (1988).
Evening – Sunday, March 14, 2010
John is making a push from Unalakleet to Shaktoolik, now in fifth place and steadily advancing on the leaders. The way I see it, Lance Mackey more or less told King and pack that he didn't mind somebody else winning, but they were going to have to go through hell to do it. Lance has been pushing hard since blowing through Kaltag and mushing to Unalakleet. Philospically, it looks to me like John has the same attitude. John senses opportunity when the wind starts to blow across the sea ice and has been relentlessly reeling in the front of the pack.
No doubt John is moving with a strong team, but the question is whether he has enough miles and time to catch the front runners. Honestly, I am amazed that he broke into the top five so decisively.
Looking practically at the end of the race, I think we can see John taking three more rests to the finish. He'll probably stop to regroup for three or four hours in Shaktoolik, push across the ice of Norton Sound, rest four hours in Koyuk, and then steamroll to White Mountain. In White Mountain, of course, mushers are required to stay for a mandatory rest of eight hours. That will recharge his team for the final 77 miles to Nome.
Ahead of John are Mackey, King, Hans Gott, and Hugh Neff. All these guys are tough and experienced, so picking any one of them off is going to require some luck and a strong team. But, it is possible, especially if we remember how John vaulted into the top three in 2009 on the ice into Koyuk.
I have been following the front of the pack closely today and am just left with a feeling of complete empathy for the battle that is going on in the top five. Its difficult to imagine how tired, exhausted, and spent John and the front pack must be. I doubt they will sleep more than six hours over the next two days and 240 miles to the finish.
Afternoon – Saturday, March 13, 2010
The story of the day is resilience. After a true bummer at Cripple, we can all see John has landed back in sixth place. All I can say is incredible. I thought he had a chance at top ten if he played it carefully on the Bering Sea Coast. Instead, he just amazed us all by doing it on the Yukon River. I cant even argue that my previous optimistic blog contained any genius. John's return to the front is beyond any expectations I had and just blows my mind.
Looking ahead, the five mushers in front of John are just as serious as he is. The battle to the front will be exhausting and hard fought. Honestly. I dont have any instinctive feelings about how this race will now play out. Mackey, King, Neff, Seavey, Gatt, and Baker are going use every ruse, skill, and twists of strategy to move to the front.
Presently, I would say Mackey's move out of Kaltag to take the lead was a symbol that there are no truces. Certainly, King, who is now driving 13 dogs, would have liked to run a gentleman's race where all would have agreed silently to get a nice nap in Kaltag. Instead, Mackey made no concessions and bolted in direction Unalakleet. I am watching with interest how John will lay down his strategy to Unalakleet.
Afternoon – Friday, March 12, 2010
Like all of you following John on the internet, we can easily look at the standings and note that John is standing in 17th position and resting in Ruby this Friday afternoon. Initially, we can get a little discouraged and wonder if he wouldn't be in the front pack had he not got turned around on the trail into Cripple.
I am taking a little different viewpoint. His dogs are now well rested and ready for the last half of the race, where, a musher can make up unbelievable margins of time. From memory, I recall that Paul Gebhardt actually took a 24 hour mandatory break in Galena in 2006 and was more or less in 17th position leaving Galena. Incredibly, he quickly regained the pack and finished 3rd. Therefore, I think it is entirely conceivable that he can salvage some of the damage at Cripple and fight his way back into the top ten.
Historically, John has always made great moves in the later parts of the race, where coastal weather, tough conditions, and exhaustion can slow many teams. In summary, I am really looking forward to watching John's race unfold. I look to see him make one major run past Galena to Bishop Rock and then one more run to Kaltag. After a rest in Kaltag, he will soon be on the Bering coast where his dogs---tough and used to the wind---always have an advantage.
Morning - Thursday, March 11, 2010
Well, I'm baffled on reports by ADN that John may have passed cripple checkpoint in the middle of the night. This early morning, the Iditarod standings site shows John into Cripple, but behind the younger Dallas Seavey. What can you say untill we get some decent reporting out of Cripple? It looks like John may have missed a trail and blown some time---which is really discouraging. To tell you the truth, I'll be really dissapointed if the confusion in the middle of the night for John and Dallas was a trail marking screw up.
On the bright side, he is still positioned at the front of the race looking back at the advancing surge of mushers coming off a 24 hour mandatory in Takotna. At the head of the pack is Jeff King, who appears to be momentarily in command of the race.
Generally speaking, John's strategy is a good one because he will be coming off a luxurious 24 hour rest just as King and crowd are leaving Cripple. Expect King to have anywhere from a four to six hour lead on John leaving Cripple. This is just the way the math works out because John is coming off the 24 hour mandatory. It always appears that way until the mushers take their next rest stop and the math of resting and running evens out.
I looked at the map and note that John can probably make it to Nome with six major rest stops. King and the others leaving Takotna will probably require seven or eight, which means, theoretically, John will have the fresher team in the last leg of the race. That's the strategy rationale for going to Cripple for the 24 hour mandatory. Let's hope it works for John.
Morning - Wednesday, March 10, 2010
John's fans are sure to be watching the little green dots on the screen this morning and sizing up the race. Obviously, King is resting in Takotna and has sixteen dogs and the fastest team. He is the guy to beat, but John is executing a great strategy move by resting in Takotna and now moving towards Ophir and presumably Cripple.
This will put him at the front of the race looking back down the trail at the end of the 24 hour rest. John's team has always been known for deliberate moves, especially in the last half of the moves. This puts him in excellent position to race especially since he is going to be positioned at the number one spot.
He is taking gamble because he is assuming the Iditarod trail breakers laid down a good trail. But I think it could really work out well because the snowmachines drag the trail. If it set up, John could have a glide path all the way to Cripple on a hard trail.
King and crowd will sling shot out of Takotna, but John will have the advantage with a super rested team in Cripple after his 24 hour. Theoretically, that means he will be able to rest one or two times less to the finish---and mathematically, that's huge leverage.
Afternoon - Monday, March 8, 2010
A big group of us are looking at the gps dots on the Iditarod map trying to figure out this year's strategy. Obviously, there are any number of mushers with a team to win, including John Baker.
This is what I think is going on right now. The lead pack has been fortunate because an overnight snowfall more or less groomed the trail. Reports indicate the trail is now fast and not dangerous. The big question is the north side of the Alaska Range and the trail through the Dalzell Gorge, which reportedly has some fragile ice bridges cross the creek.
It looks like the mushers are lining up to be first in line down the Dalzell. Everytime a musher goes down the Dalzell, the ice bridges get damaged. That's immediate consideration number one. For the long term, I am sure that John wants to be near the front so he can guage the competition, but I dont think he wants to go on giant run yet to test Gebhardt or any of the early rabbits.
I know its frustrating trying to get trail reports but I am still confident that John is right where he wants to be. He understands, for example, that Schnuelle and Gehardt are more or less locked into a strategy of long snow runs. After his success at the Kusko 300, John knows he has the team speed to stay right with Mackey and Buser, so it seems like his strategy is just getting into a good rythm of run and rest for the dogs. In my mind, he is also hoping for some good wind or cooler temperatures for his dogs---always a problem for Kotzebue dogs the first day out of Willow.
The other big challenge beside Dalzell is the Buffalo Tunnels outside of Rohn, especially where root wads and rocks before the Post River crossing can make night driving "thrilling." John will be in the middle of the tunnels later tonight.